Understanding the World: Confounded Causality
Note: Research and Ghostwriting by LLM AI; shaped by my fevered brain – Ephektikoi
Introduction
When we try to understand the world, especially in complex situations, we often get the causal chain wrong. Let's call this essential confounding—the idea that our understanding of causality may be fundamentally flawed. This concept is broader than the specialized notion of "confounders" in scientific research and likely predates formal science by millennia. It's an idea that has probably existed in all languages and cultures throughout history.
The Ubiquity of Essential Confounds
Given how common essential confounds are, it’s curious why people remain so confident in their beliefs. Why do they so readily accept some explanations without much reflection and reject others without due consideration? People can be quite incurious at times. The truth is, most folks don’t think like scientists, philosophers, or scholars. But here's the kicker—even most scientists, philosophers, and scholars don’t always think like scientists, philosophers, or scholars.
These so-called seekers after truth have their own blind spots, biases, and groupthink. They can be just as prone to ignoring evidence that doesn't fit their worldview as anyone else. The picture of scholars as purely objective truth-seekers is often far from reality.
The Human Tendency Towards Certainty
People prefer simple, straightforward explanations, leading to overconfidence in their understanding. This tendency can be problematic. When we don’t question our assumptions or consider alternative explanations, we fall victim to essential confounding. The lack of curiosity and critical thinking isn’t just limited to the general public; it extends to those who are supposed to know better. Mea culpa—we’re all guilty of this in some way.
Summary
Confounded causality is an unavoidable part of human understanding. Essential confounding shows that our grasp of cause and effect is often flawed, particularly in complex situations. Despite this, people—scholars included—often display overconfidence in their beliefs, readily accepting some ideas and dismissing others without sufficient thought. This isn’t just a problem for the uninformed; it’s a broader human issue, reflecting a preference for certainty and a reluctance to engage in the deep, critical thinking necessary for true understanding.