Understanding the World: A few Aphorisms Courtesy of ChatGPT
I try to come to grips with some thoughts I've had over the last few decades, trying to put them into an easier-to-understand format. I think I failed but they are concise; kind of cute too.
Note: I have ChatGPT play with some ideas. The original thoughts were at least somewhat coherent. These? Hmm.
Correlation: Correlation whispers hints but never proves.
Causation: Causation is a mirage until rigor makes it real.
Variability: All variability is bounded—if only we could see the bounds.
Bounded Variability: Variability stretches far but never to infinity.
Odds: Odds clarify uncertainty, yet they rarely offer certainty.
Mathematical Abstractions of Variability: Mathematics sharpens variability into clarity, but never without cost.
Correlation and Causation: Correlation is the seed of causation, but many seeds never sprout.
Objective Facts: Few facts stand alone; most are draped in interpretation.
Confounding: The world is a tangle; we are left to untangle what we can.
Making Sense of Reality: Reality resists comprehension, yet we persist.
Flawed Research Methods: Methods can be precise yet miss the truth.
Replication Failures: What cannot be replicated may never have been real.
Conceptual Problems with Statistics: Statistics offers tools, not certainty.
Application of Statistics: Good tools in bad hands cut crooked lines.
Paradigm Shifts: Science shifts, but progress is never guaranteed.
Consensus and Truth: Consensus is comfortable; truth is elusive.
Alternative Opinions: For every consensus, there is a dissent that deserves a hearing.
Fallibility of Scholars: Scholars speak with authority, but authority is no guarantee of truth.
Skepticism of Truth Claims: Many claim truth; few earn it.
Determinism and Randomness: Determinism draws clean lines; randomness colors outside them.
Inductive Logic: Induction is a bet on tomorrow made with today’s winnings.
Faith in Patterns: Patterns endure—until the day they don’t.
Knowing the Odds: Knowing the odds is not knowing the future—only its likelihoods.
Danger of Certainty: Certainty is the mask ignorance wears when it pretends to know.